Archives: 01/11/2024

On October 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to discuss the recent initiatives aimed at bolstering support for businesses. Cong Lin, Deputy Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, emphasized that a series of measures have been introduced specifically focused on assisting enterprises. The main goal of these initiatives is to eliminate the financing bottlenecks faced by small and micro enterprises, improve the business environment, and streamline financing channels, all while striving for enhanced services at lower costs.

Overall, the supply of financial resources has been steadily increasing. By the end of August this year, the balance of RMB loans reached 252.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Insurance companies provided various types of financing support amounting to 28.8 trillion yuan through bonds, stocks, and other means. In terms of structure, the support for key sectors continues to intensify, with loans to inclusive small and micro enterprises rising by 16.1%, and loans to private enterprises increasing by 9%. On the pricing side, interest rates have stabilized and even declined slightly; from January to August, the interest rates for newly issued loans to inclusive small and micro enterprises dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared to last year.

Cong highlighted several specific measures being implemented:

The first measure involves optimizing the policy for renewals without repayment to assist business entities struggling with cash flow. This policy now applies not just to small micro enterprises but is also being temporarily expanded to medium-sized enterprises. Loans eligible for renewal will not have their credit classification downgraded solely based on the renewal process. Banks are encouraged to enhance risk management by comprehensively assessing borrowers’ payment capabilities and guarantees to appropriately classify the risk of renewed loans.

The second measure, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is the establishment of a financing coordination mechanism that supports small and micro enterprises. This mechanism focuses on building specialized teams at the district and county levels to create a precise connection between banks and enterprises. The aim is to thoroughly understand the actual operating conditions of local businesses, allowing for targeted support that effectively addresses financing challenges. On the banking side, efforts are being made to clear information flow and funding transmission obstacles. It is hoped that businesses operating legally with genuine financing needs and good credit will benefit from this mechanism with direct access to funds—without intermediaries and at suitable financing costs.

The third measure is aimed at further leveraging the protective role of insurance. In sectors like construction and foreign trade, the use of performance bonds and customs guarantee insurance is being promoted to replace traditional cash deposits. In the first half of the year, this measure assisted 520,000 enterprises in unlocking existing capital and alleviating cash flow pressure. Additionally, efforts are being made to have export credit insurance companies adopt a comprehensive financial service approach combining “credit protection and policy financing” to help numerous export businesses reduce their concerns.

The fourth measure is to enhance the due diligence exemption system. A key aspect of improving financial services for small and micro enterprises is to relieve pressure on grassroots credit personnel and foster a positive environment that encourages accountability and responsibility. Therefore, recent revisions to the previous due diligence exemption guidelines have clarified various exemption scenarios. Individuals fulfilling their job responsibilities but with minor missteps can be relieved of liability. Many banks have begun to refine and improve their internal regulations in compliance with supervisory requirements, resulting in an increase in both the number and proportion of individuals granted exemptions.

Furthermore, regulatory efforts are increasingly focused on precision regulation. Under the premise of legal and comprehensive oversight, softer, more accommodating measures such as policy guidance, risk warnings, and remediation prompts will be employed to address general operational risks in the inclusive finance sector, particularly in service to small and micro enterprises. The goal is to integrate supervision with service, making regulation more considerate and enhancing financial institutions’ enthusiasm and initiative in implementing business support policies, thereby fostering a conducive environment for enterprise development.

On October 25, the Chinese news agency Xinhuanet reported that Aida Cruises officially unveiled the name of its second domestically produced large cruise ship, the “Aida Huacheng.” This vessel is currently in the accelerated assembly phase and is scheduled for delivery by the end of 2026, operating regular international routes from its homeport in Guangzhou.

The “Aida Huacheng” began construction in August 2022 at the Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Company, part of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. The name “Huacheng,” translates to “Flower City,” drawing inspiration from Guangzhou and symbolizing a vibrant, dynamic city.

Compared to the first domestic large cruise ship, “Aida Modu,” the “Aida Huacheng” boasts a larger gross tonnage and length, with an increased number of staterooms totaling 2,130, accommodating up to 5,232 guests when fully booked. Enhancements have been made to the cabin designs and layouts, adding a variety of new suite types.

The public spaces and entertainment systems on the “Aida Huacheng” have also been significantly upgraded, with the atrium area expanded to double its previous size. The interior and art design integrate rich multicultural elements, reflecting the maritime Silk Road and Lingnan culture, with a floral theme creating a vibrant and creative environment. A new open multifunctional social space, inspired by “Flower City,” combines entertainment, relaxation, social interaction, and coffee culture to create a “Seaside Community Garden.”

Currently, Aida Cruises operates the “Aida Modu” and “Aida Mediterranean,” having served over 380,000 guests both domestically and internationally. The “Aida Mediterranean” is expected to arrive in Guangzhou on December 18, following a 13-day voyage across five Southeast Asian countries, marking the start of the cruise season from Guangzhou. This season will feature international cruise routes spanning from three days and two nights to six days and five nights, covering popular destinations such as Hong Kong, Japan, and Vietnam.

On October 23, 2023, in Beijing, China’s domestic oil prices experienced a slight increase, marking the ninth increase of the year. According to a recent announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), starting from midnight on October 23, 2024, the price of gasoline and diesel will rise by 90 yuan and 85 yuan per ton, respectively, in response to changes in international oil prices.

Meng Peng, an analyst from Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that this price adjustment will lead to a modest increase in driving costs. For example, filling up a household sedan with a 50-liter fuel tank using 92 or 95 octane gasoline will cost an additional approximately 3.5 yuan.

For consumers who drive a small private car that travels 2,000 kilometers a month with a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, their fuel costs are expected to rise by around 5 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens on November 6, 2024.

In the logistics sector, for a heavy truck that covers 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel costs will increase by approximately 124 yuan per vehicle before the next price adjustment.

Since the beginning of 2024, there have been a total of 21 price adjustment windows for refined oil retail prices in China, which include 9 increases, 8 decreases, and 4 instances where prices remained unchanged. The prices for standard gasoline and diesel have each increased by a total of 15 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of about 0.01 yuan per liter for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 diesel compared to the beginning of the year.

Looking ahead, analyst Dai Tiandong from Zhuochuang Information mentioned that factors such as the U.S. oil inventory build-up and expectations for increased production from OPEC+ may exert downward pressure on the market. He anticipates that international oil prices may continue to show weakness, with the next pricing cycle potentially starting on a low note.

On October 27, multiple sources reported a disturbing incident in central Israel, where a truck crashed into a bus stop, injuring dozens of people. According to the Times of Israel, this bus stop is located near the IDF’s Gliyot base. Preliminary investigations by the police revealed that the truck collided with the bus stop while a bus was parked there, allowing passengers to disembark.

Emergency rescue organization Magen David Adom has reported that 31 individuals have been transported to hospitals, with six suffering serious injuries. Additionally, four others who were traumatized by the event have also been hospitalized.

As reported by the Jerusalem Post, witnesses at the scene indicated that nearby civilians fired at the truck driver, eventually subduing him.

Authorities are currently investigating the circumstances surrounding this incident, although the police have not yet confirmed whether it was a deliberate attack.

**Interviewer:** Can you tell us about your experience at the Yangling Agricultural High-tech Fair this year?

**Wang Zihe (Tajikistan exhibitor):** This is my second time at the Yangling Agricultural High-tech Fair. My last participation was very successful, so I decided to bring even more food and beverages this time. My main goal is to promote high-quality, all-natural dried fruits.

**Interviewer:** What do you find special about this event?

**Wang Zihe:** The theme this year is “New Productive Forces, New Future for Agriculture,” and it’s a fantastic platform for over 1,800 international and domestic manufacturers to share agricultural innovations and new opportunities. Since I studied in China starting in 2017, I’ve been keen to integrate into the local market. I’ve gained insights into consumer preferences here, which helps me select products for exhibition. I’m also really eager to explore and taste different types of Chinese tea while I’m here.

**Interviewer:** And what about you, Li Chenyan? How’s your experience at the fair?

**Li Chenyan (Uzbekistan exhibitor):** This is my first time at the Yangling Agricultural Fair. I’ve participated in many exhibitions, but this one feels special. I brought a variety of products, including dried fruits, juices, biscuits, and traditional silk and wool scarves from my hometown. I wanted to represent my culture alongside our products.

**Interviewer:** What are your expectations from this event?

**Li Chenyan:** I’m here to seek new opportunities and expand market reach. This fair is an excellent platform to find potential partners. I aim to showcase my hometown culture through the diverse range of products I brought, hoping to make connections despite not having a large quantity to display.

**Interviewer:** Tara, you also brought a unique range of products. What are some highlights?

**Tara (Kazakhstan exhibitor):** Yes, our high-quality flour and sunflower seed oil are quite popular. They’re essential in our diet, just like they are here in Shaanxi. We’ve also brought wine and honey, which Kazakhstanis use for their health benefits. I often bring honey to China as a gift, as it embodies our culture.

**Interviewer:** How do you feel about your connection with Shaanxi?

**Tara:** I started studying in China in 2015, and I feel a strong connection to Shaanxi. Since the opening of the flight route from Xi’an to Almaty, I pass through Shaanxi every time I return home. The local cuisine and warm-hearted people have brought me closer to this place.

**Interviewer:** Can you tell us more about the cultural exchange happening during the fair?

**Tara:** Absolutely! Beyond product introductions, we’ve prepared traditional dance performances that showcase our culture. The central stage features a variety of performances, captivating the audience with intricate dances and music from different countries.

**Interviewer:** What significance does Shaanxi hold for you and your fellow exhibitors?

**Fatima (Kyrgyzstan exhibitor):** Shaanxi is not only an agricultural powerhouse but also the starting point of the ancient Silk Road. Its rich history and cultural significance make it an ideal place for trade and agricultural development. I’m displaying special scarves made of silk and wool and feel inspired by the vibrant atmosphere. I might even perform tomorrow to share more of my culture!

**Interviewer:** Thank you all for sharing your experiences. It sounds like the Yangling Agricultural High-tech Fair is a fantastic opportunity for cultural and commercial connections.

On October 24, a significant musical event took place in the Nujiang Lisu Autonomous Prefecture, known as the 27th edition of the “Folk Song Grand View” series in Yunnan, titled “Heart Blooms as I Sing for the Great River.” Local singers and artistic groups came together to fill the Nujiang Grand Canyon with their melodious voices.

We spoke with Jiang Mingchu, a renowned lyricist and the planner behind “Folk Song Grand View.” He emphasized the deep-rooted musical traditions of the region, stating, “In Nujiang, nearly every villager has an innate ability to perform their ancient folk songs using a unique blend of techniques influenced by social media and polyphonic singing.”

Nestled in a dramatic landscape where the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates collide, Nujiang Prefecture features a staggering elevation difference of 4,390 meters. For a long time, this region remained relatively unknown, often referred to as a “hidden paradise.” However, its rich history dates back thousands of years, evidenced by archaeological findings such as the Yushui Ping Paleolithic site and ancient rock paintings at Lasaidi, indicating human activity in the area for at least three to four millennia.

The diverse communities of the Lisu, Nu, Drung, Pumi, and Han peoples have coexisted harmoniously for centuries, creating a vibrant tapestry of history and culture enriched by unique customs, music, dance, attire, architecture, cuisine, and mythology.

In the Nujiang Grand Canyon, songs are woven deeply into everyday life, even influencing local dispute resolution methods. The Lisu people’s approach to settling conflicts through song is remarkable; when disagreements arise, the plaintiff presents their case through singing, placing a stone on the table for each point made. Conversely, the defendant sings their defense, adding a stone for each rebuttal. A village “judge” sings to mediate until a resolution is reached.

The latest “Folk Song Grand View” featured impressive performances from talented singers such as Rongbaxinna, Apusasa, and Nadasha. They were accompanied by cultural groups including the Nujiang Ethnic Culture Work Team and various choirs, showcasing traditional songs like the Lisu’s “Bashai,” “Jiazi: Song of Love for Herbs,” and “Guan Si Diao,” along with pieces from the Nu, Pumi, and Drung communities.

This popular folk music series broadcasts through multiple platforms including the China News app, its website, and social media like Facebook, TikTok, and Douyin, reaching audiences both domestically and internationally. It has garnered support from several overseas media outlets across Southeast Asia.

“Folk Song Grand View” is guided by the Yunnan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party’s Propaganda Department and is hosted by China News Service alongside the Yunnan Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism. The initiative aims to present the rich, diverse ethnic music culture of China to a global audience, further promoting cross-border cultural exchanges and enhancing the visibility of Chinese culture. Since its launch in 2022, the series has accumulated over 415 million views online.

On October 21, reports emerged regarding Japan’s upcoming House of Representatives election set for October 27. According to a recent poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun, the governing coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito may face uncertainty in retaining a majority in the chamber. Estimates suggest that the LDP could lose around 50 seats, dropping from 247 prior to the announcement of the election.

The Asahi Shimbun’s polls, conducted on October 19 and 20, indicate that it remains unclear whether the ruling coalition can hold onto a majority. Conversely, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, seems poised to significantly increase its presence from 98 seats prior to the election announcement. The poll also shows favorable conditions for the National Democratic Party and the Ready for Reform Party.

It’s noteworthy that since the 2012 House election, the LDP has independently secured a majority in four consecutive elections; however, the outcome of this election may be different. Additionally, about 40% of voters have yet to express a clear voting intention, suggesting that the electoral landscape may shift dramatically as the election date approaches.

The survey also reports that the support rate for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet stands at 33%, with a disapproval rate of 39%.

Japan’s House of Representatives elections are held every four years and utilize a mixed electoral system combining single-member districts and proportional representation. In single-member districts, voters cast their ballots directly for candidates, with the highest vote-getter winning; the proportional representation allows voters to vote for parties, which are then allocated seats based on the percentage of votes received.

On October 9, Prime Minister Ishiba announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, with the official notification of the new election taking place on October 15. Voting is scheduled for October 27.

Arif Husain, the head of fixed income at T. Rowe Price, recently made headlines with a bold prediction about U.S. Treasury yields. He pointed out that due to rising inflation expectations and concerns surrounding U.S. government spending, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds could potentially climb towards 5% in the next six months.

In a brief commentary, Husain highlighted, “The yield on the 10-year Treasury is likely to test the 5% threshold in the coming months, resulting in a steeper yield curve.” He suggested that a modest interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be the quickest path to achieving that 5% mark.

This forecast stands in stark contrast to market expectations, which have leaned towards declining yields following the Fed’s first rate cut in four years last month. However, strong economic data continues to raise questions about the pace of future cuts, intensifying debates about the direction of the world’s largest bond market.

The last time the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% was in October of last year, marking the highest level since 2007, amid concerns about prolonged high-interest rates. If Husain’s predictions come to fruition, it could lead to a significant reevaluation in the markets, as strategists currently expect yields to drop to around 3.67% by the second quarter of next year.

As of Monday, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was hovering at 4.08%.

With nearly 30 years of market experience, Husain observed that the U.S. Treasury is continually issuing bonds to finance government deficits, which is flooding the market with new supply. At the same time, the Fed’s quantitative tightening—reducing its balance sheet after years of bond purchases—has curtailed a significant source of demand for Treasuries.

Husain, who oversees T. Rowe Price’s fixed income division, explained that rising short-term Treasury yields may be constrained by the potential for rate cuts, leading to a steeper yield curve.

His insights resonate particularly in light of the increasing strains on U.S. finances. By September, the cost of servicing U.S. debt had surged to its highest level since the 1990s. Notably, neither former President Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris have prioritized deficit reduction in their campaign platforms, highlighting the significant risk that government debt poses to market participants.

Husain believes that the most likely scenario for the Fed involves a series of small rate cuts, akin to those seen between 1995 and 1998. In such a scenario, he anticipates that China would introduce additional stimulus measures to invigorate its economy, fostering global growth and clarifying the Fed’s decision-making path.

However, he also entertained the possibility of a more conventional easing cycle, where the Fed could lower rates closer to neutral levels, which he estimates might be around 3%. Additionally, he considered the potential for a U.S. recession, which could trigger more aggressive rate cuts.

Husain concluded, “Investors who, like me, believe a recession is unlikely in the near term should prepare for higher long-term Treasury yields.”

On October 21, during King Charles III’s visit to the Australian Parliament, he was confronted by Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe, who shouted directly at him, “You are not my king.” Thorpe’s protest, which lasted about a minute, interrupted the ceremony taking place in Canberra, and she was subsequently escorted out by security.

According to a report by the BBC, Thorpe accused European colonizers of committing “genocide” against Indigenous Australians, shouting, “This is not your land, you are not my king.”

However, earlier that day, an Indigenous elder, Aunty Violet Sheridan, who welcomed King Charles and his wife, criticized Thorpe’s protest as “disrespectful,” asserting, “She does not speak for me.”

Later, Thorpe elaborated to the BBC, expressing her intention to deliver a “clear message” to King Charles III. She stated, “To be the ruler of this land, you must belong to this land. He does not belong to this land.”

Thorpe emphasized the necessity for the King to direct Parliament and Indigenous representatives to engage in discussions about a peace treaty, saying, “We can lead this, we can do this, we can be a better country. But we cannot bow to colonizers. The ancestors that Charles mentioned are responsible for mass murder and genocide.”

Australia became a British colony over a century ago, during which thousands of Indigenous people were killed, and many were displaced. Although Australia was declared a “de facto independent nation” in 1901, it still recognizes the British monarch as head of state.

In addition, according to Central News Agency reports, the King and Queen Consort visited the Australian War Memorial on the same day, paying their respects by laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Australian Soldier. This marked their first visit to the city in nearly a decade.

Continuing their Australian tour, Charles and Camilla are set to visit Sydney on October 22 before heading to Samoa for a British Commonwealth meeting.

Interestingly, Charles had previously attended school in Australia for six months as a teenager in 1966. This trip marks his first significant foreign visit since being diagnosed with cancer in February.

With increased platform subsidies and government incentives, shopping channels are becoming more diverse. Can the early launch of “Double Eleven” lead to a boost in consumer spending?

This year’s “Double Eleven” shopping event kicked off earlier than in previous years, with major platforms ramping up their subsidies and introducing innovative rules. The introduction of government trade-in subsidies adds a new dimension to the shopping extravaganza, providing fresh opportunities for consumers and smaller merchants alike.

“I feel like this year’s ‘Double Eleven’ is stretching out, almost merging with the National Day holiday,” said Wang Dan, a consumer from Chongqing who is enthusiastic about online shopping. While he noted a lack of the usual festive frenzy, he sees several new highlights that are hard to ignore.

The combination of the “Double Eleven” shopping event with various consumer-boosting policies is viewed as a crucial opportunity to enhance overall consumption. Industry experts suggest that the platform that launches “Double Eleven” first may benefit from a significant uptick in sales.

In response to this backdrop, platforms are racing to be the earliest participants. A notable change this year is on Taobao and Tmall, which began their pre-sale events on October 14, ten days earlier than in previous years. JD.com and Pinduoduo launched their events nine and six days earlier than in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Observers noted the urgency reflected in the actions of these platforms.

Increased subsidies and innovative rules are key themes this year. For the first time, Pinduoduo introduced a “100 Billion Consumption Coupon” initiative and enhanced its “super double subsidy” offer, transitioning from a promise of “buying expensive means compensating” to “double compensation for overpriced items.” Meanwhile, Tmall announced it would offer an additional 300 billion yuan in coupons and red envelopes on top of its standard discounts.

A particularly noteworthy change is the government’s introduction of trade-in subsidies, prompting consumers to comment on the “real charm” of lower prices for appliances. With a 20% government subsidy combined with Tmall’s promotional efforts, prices on the platform could drop to as low as 60% of their original cost. Companies involved confirmed that as an official platform for government subsidies, they aim to enhance customer experience by collaborating with brands and financial institutions.

Zhang Yuang, chief of the “Double Eleven” event at a comparison shopping site, remarked that the government’s push for trade-in subsidies serves as a crucial engine for consumer spending this year. He noted that various local governments are rolling out their own consumption coupons to cater to diverse consumer needs, and platforms are responding with greater subsidies to stimulate user engagement.

Beyond enhanced subsidies, innovation is also evident in business rules. Yaowang Technology has upgraded multiple facets of its operations, including product selection, livestreaming strategies, content creation, and channel integration. For instance, during October 12-14, Yaowang’s hosts collaborated with over 300 product selectors to stream live bargain sales, rapidly updating merchandise and providing a broader array of options, addressing previous challenges of monotony.

The shift from “building walls” to “breaking down walls” is another significant trend this year. In September, Taobao began accepting WeChat payments, marking a milestone in cross-platform connectivity.

“Since Taobao and Tmall integrated with multiple internet platforms, we’ve seen swift growth in usage among young and down-market consumers,” said Wu Jia, president of the Taotian User Platform Division. He emphasized that payment integration is just the first step, with plans for deeper collaboration in the future.

Internet analyst Ma Jihua pointed out that for WeChat users, shopping on Taobao has become more seamless, which will likely influence the design of promotional activities. An enriched and more accessible purchasing landscape could attract new user segments, including university students and older demographics who prefer WeChat payments.

On October 16, JD Logistics announced its collaboration with Taotian Group, allowing merchants on Taobao and Tmall to utilize JD’s delivery services. As both companies work to integrate systems, consumers will soon be able to track JD deliveries directly through the Taobao and Tmall apps.

Industry insiders emphasized that the transition to “breaking down walls” offers consumers more choices and grants smaller merchants better access to reach customers, which may bolster consumption growth.

As livestreaming for e-commerce gains traction, concerns have arisen over misleading promotions from some influencers, prompting a call for improved quality in livestream sales. This focus on “quality livestreaming” has become a salient aspect of this year’s “Double Eleven.”

“We may witness a significant turning point in livestreaming commerce, evolving towards a more orderly and transparent operational model, heralding a new opportunity for ‘quality livestreaming,'” remarked a spokesperson from a major livestream platform.

On the night of October 14, Tmall’s “Double Eleven” presale commenced. Notably, Li Jiaqi’s livestream once again showcased domestic brands, with many quality products attracting consumer interest and achieving record sales figures, showing over a 20% year-on-year increase in orders.

Experts argue that as livestreaming commerce matures, establishing stable and sustainable business models is essential. Future developments should emphasize quality, leveraging livestreaming to foster new consumer trends, with leading enterprises setting examples to guide the industry towards positive energy. A successful quality livestreaming model, synergizing professional hosts, branded products, and quality platform services, is expected to become the industry standard.