On October 27, Japan held its House of Representatives election, and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) emerged as the biggest winner. Party leader Kenta Noda radiated positivity as results came in that evening. According to public broadcaster NHK and other local news outlets, vote counting wasn’t completed until early October 28 (around 4 AM Eastern Time), revealing that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power for nearly 12 years, not only failed to secure a majority on its own but also fell short with its coalition partner, Komeito.
The election results show that out of the 465 contested seats, the LDP won only 191, while Komeito secured 24, totaling 215 seats for the “LDP-Komeito alliance.” This is below the 233 seats required for a majority.
Before the election, the LDP held 247 seats, and Komeito had 32, bringing their coalition total to 279 seats. Following the election, the LDP’s losses amounted to 56 seats, exceeding pre-election projections of a 50-seat drop, while Komeito lost 8 seats, resulting in a total loss of 64 seats for the alliance.
One notable casualty was Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii, who lost in his district in Saitama to Democratic Party candidate Yoshihiro Suzuki and was not selected in the proportional representation section, ensuring his defeat. Ishii’s loss marks a significant moment, as it’s the first time since 2009 that a Komeito leader has failed to win a seat.
In stark contrast, the CDP, the largest opposition party, saw a major surge, increasing its seat count from 98 to 148. On the night of the election, Kenta Noda expressed ambitions to replace the LDP’s Shigeru Ishiba as the new Prime Minister.
The other opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, also made significant gains, jumping from 7 to 28 seats. Although the Japan Innovation Party, based in the Kansai region, saw a decrease from 44 to 38 seats, it remains the third-largest party in the House. The progressive Reiwa Shinsengumi party, which just formed in 2019, gained 6 seats, rising from 3 to 9.
Despite the LDP’s substantial setbacks, party heavyweights, including Shigeru Ishiba, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former prime ministers Fumio Kishida and Yoshihide Suga, all won their seats. Koichi Hagiuda, part of the Abe faction, who ran independently after a funding scandal, also secured victory.
While Ishiba signaled a willingness to cooperate with opposition parties on the night of the election, Noda, along with Democratic Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki and Japan Innovation Party leader Nobuyuki Baba, all voiced firm opposition to joining the LDP-Komeito coalition. Reports from the Japan Innovation Party indicated a complete lack of trust in the LDP.
If Noda aspires to reclaim the Prime Minister’s office, he will need to forge alliances with the Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party. However, even a coalition among these three would only yield 214 seats, requiring further collaboration with the Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Communist Party, which lost 2 seats but still holds 8.
Though the LDP faced considerable defeat, its key figures managed to retain their seats, indicating a complex landscape for future governance in Japan.
