Japan is gearing up for one of its most competitive elections in years this Sunday, as new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his powerful Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) face a challenging landscape that could result in their worst electoral performance since 2009.
Opinion polls indicate that the conservative LDP, alongside its junior coalition partner, could fall short of securing a majority—a scenario that could significantly weaken Ishiba’s leadership. The 67-year-old former defense minister assumed office just last month and quickly called for a snap election, aiming to bolster the LDP, which has been at the helm of Japanese politics for nearly seven decades.
Voter sentiment has been soured by rising prices and the repercussions of a party slush fund scandal that contributed to the downfall of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In a rally on Saturday, Ishiba appealed to supporters, stating, “We want to start afresh as a fair, just, and sincere party, and seek your mandate.”
He has committed to rejuvenating struggling rural areas and addressing the pressing issue of Japan’s declining population through family-friendly initiatives like flexible work hours. However, his recent shifts on topics such as allowing married couples to use separate surnames and the limited representation of women in his cabinet have raised eyebrows.
A self-described security policy “geek,” Ishiba advocates for building a regional military alliance similar to NATO to counter China’s influence, although he has tempered expectations by stressing that such a shift wouldn’t occur overnight.
A poll published Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, may find it difficult to achieve the 233 lower house seats necessary for a majority. Missing this target could jeopardize Ishiba’s standing within the LDP, possibly compelling him to seek other coalition partners or even lead a minority government. Speculation has even emerged about the potential for Ishiba to resign should the election yield disappointing results, which could make him Japan’s shortest-serving postwar prime minister.
“The situation is extremely severe,” Ishiba reportedly acknowledged on Friday. In many districts, LDP candidates are in a tight race with those from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), led by popular former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
Noda criticized the LDP’s political approach, stating, “The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” noting that those in precarious situations who cannot provide financial support have been overlooked. He pointed to the government’s inadequate assistance for earthquake survivors in central Japan.
Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, noted that while Noda’s views align with those of the LDP, many voters are seeing the CDP as a viable alternative. “The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP,” he said.
In a bid to distance himself from the ongoing funding scandal, Ishiba has vowed not to actively support current LDP politicians implicated in the controversy, though they are still running. Reports suggest that the party has allocated 20 million yen (£100,000) to district offices led by these figures—a move Ishiba has labeled as “biased,” arguing that “those candidates will not use the money.”
Undecided voter Hitomi Hisano from the central Aichi region expressed his discontent with the LDP’s longstanding rule. “The LDP has sat in power for too long. I see hubris in there,” the 69-year-old said. “So part of me wants to punish them. But there aren’t other parties that are reliable enough to win my vote.”
