On October 21, reports emerged regarding Japan’s upcoming House of Representatives election set for October 27. According to a recent poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun, the governing coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito may face uncertainty in retaining a majority in the chamber. Estimates suggest that the LDP could lose around 50 seats, dropping from 247 prior to the announcement of the election.
The Asahi Shimbun’s polls, conducted on October 19 and 20, indicate that it remains unclear whether the ruling coalition can hold onto a majority. Conversely, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, seems poised to significantly increase its presence from 98 seats prior to the election announcement. The poll also shows favorable conditions for the National Democratic Party and the Ready for Reform Party.
It’s noteworthy that since the 2012 House election, the LDP has independently secured a majority in four consecutive elections; however, the outcome of this election may be different. Additionally, about 40% of voters have yet to express a clear voting intention, suggesting that the electoral landscape may shift dramatically as the election date approaches.
The survey also reports that the support rate for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet stands at 33%, with a disapproval rate of 39%.
Japan’s House of Representatives elections are held every four years and utilize a mixed electoral system combining single-member districts and proportional representation. In single-member districts, voters cast their ballots directly for candidates, with the highest vote-getter winning; the proportional representation allows voters to vote for parties, which are then allocated seats based on the percentage of votes received.
On October 9, Prime Minister Ishiba announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, with the official notification of the new election taking place on October 15. Voting is scheduled for October 27.
